Theresa May is lying to you...

Nine Seats Tell the Story of the 2017 UK General Election

It wasn't that many seats which Theresa May lost for the Conservatives, but nevertheless those fateful nine seats will forever tell the story of the 2017 UK General Election

The 2017 General Election – the turmoil behind the result

The story of the 2017 election that emerges from our analysis is one of a sequence of switching. The EU referendum removed the main obstacle to a credible Conservative policy on immigration. As UKIP supporters recognised this change in credibility, they switched to the conservatives in large numbers. Indeed, the conservatives recruited leave voters from all 2015 party origins. At the same time, the Corbyn-led labour party absorbed a large portion of the 2015 green remain vote, but before the campaign, it had lost a lot of former voters to the liberal democrats and the ‘don’t know’ category. In the campaign, however, Brexit structured the vote flows much less strongly. Instead, the main story was that labour managed to claim voters from both the leave and remain side in substantial numbers, but particularly among respondents who had said ‘don’t know’ prior to the general election campaign. The net result of the campaign was to increase the labour share without substantially increasing or decreasing the Brexit split in labour/conservative voting. A major campaign factor was the change in leader evaluations and their relationship to vote-switching.

2017 General Election UK Theresa May image.
CC BY by dullhunk

Nominations have now closed for the 2017 general election – and thousands of candidates will be battling to win 650 seats on June 8. Labour and the tories are fighting every seat while UKIP's and the green party's numbers are down as they step aside to try and influence the result. The greens have withdrawn from around 22 marginal seats deliberately to help Labour or Lib Dems beat the tories. In all the eco-friendly party has fielded 467 candidates – 68 fewer than it managed in the 2015 general election.

Results and turnout at the 2017 UK general election

On general election day, voting takes place between 07:00 and 22:00. The results are declared through the night and the following day. When the overall result is known, the leader of the winning party, if there is one, visits Buckingham palace to ask the queen for permission to form a new government. Once they have that, which is a formality, they return to the traditional home of the Prime Minister which has the address of 10 Downing Street. This terraced house is the official residence and office of the UK Prime Minister.

Latest general election results from the UK's 650 constituencies. Theresa May’s gamble has failed; the conservatives have lost their parliamentary majority and have turned to the dup to support them in forming a new government. Search for your own seat by name or postcode and find out your local result.

UK 2017 General Election Results

Boris Johnson - Story of the 2017 UK General Election image.
Boris Johnson at a Coronavirus meeting CC BY-NC-ND by UK Prime Minister

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaks during a Conservative Party event following the results of the general election in London, the United Kingdom’s conservative party won a resounding victory in a general election dominated by the question of how to execute the country’s exit from the European Union.

Prime minister Boris Johnson said the result represented a “new dawn” for the UK and promised to work “flat out” to deliver Brexit by a January 31 deadline. Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn said he will step down in early 2020 following the worst loss for the main opposition party since 1935.

The independent electoral and boundaries commission (IEBC) uploaded the 2017 General Election results on its portals for public access. The polling body said the move was in conformity with the constitution which obligates the state to provide such information to the public.

Brexit and the 2017 UK General Election

The United Kingdom voted in a snap general election which might have the start resulted in a party other than the Conservatives, perhaps Labour or the Liberal Democrats, taking power but it never happened that way. Ahead of the election day on June 8th, I looked at the manifestos of these three parties and examined what their pledges would mean for the country, as a whole, in terms of Brexit.

I spoke to Liz Lumley, a pioneer in the UK financial technology field about her views on the future of fintech post-election.

“The party that can protect the fintech industry is one that can negotiate a Brexit that causes the least amount of damage to the UK financial services and technology industries – I fear no party has people of that calibre in house,”

Lumley said.

British prime minister Theresa May called a general election in April, three years before it was required by UK electoral law, saying that she wanted an increased majority to “strengthen her hand” in Brexit talks. The gamble failed. The exit poll conducted for the main UK broadcasters was the first shock of the night came with the exit poll predicting that her Conservative Party had lost its parliamentary majority. This proved to be accurate and the result was a major upset.

No doubt, as many pundits have said, this general election was a defining moment in British history. Not only because of Brexit but because of the very different visions, both major parties had for the future of the UK.

Once upon a time, there was no clear blue water between Labour and the Conservatives, now there was. This election had been a dirty, vicious campaign by all the parties, and respect for one another had gone right out of the window. Even if you disagreed with your opponent's policies in previous elections you would still be polite, but this was not so during this vitriolic election.

How Did the Forecasters Get the 2017 General Election Results So Wrong?

As we have for every general election since 1979, Ipsos Mori has produced estimates of how the voters voted in 2017. As always, it is important to note that these are estimates only, based on people’s answers to pre-election surveys during the campaign. However, the figures have been calibrated to match the final actual results and turnout at a regional level, which should make them a more accurate guide to how different sub-groups voted.

The outcome was:

  • Conservative: 42. 4%,
  • Scottish National Party: 3. 1%
  • UKIP: 1. 9%
  • green Party: 1. 6%

Exit polls predicted a very close race and a hung parliament, But the actual results were a Tory landslide in many regions. An NME-led exit poll of young voters in the 2017 UK general election shows a markedly increased turnout for 18-24 year-olds, with a majority of the youth opting for labour. NME has been conducting its own nationally representative, pre-election research. The figures obtained by the stream has focused on a nationally representative panel of millennials, surveying 1,354 respondents in total, all aged between 18-34. Our poll showed that 56% of 18-34s voted in that election, with 53% of those aged between 18 and 24 turning out, +12% points on the audience’s turnout of 41% in 2015. 60% of 18–34s said they voted labour, with two-thirds of those aged 18–24 voting for Jeremy Corbyn's party.

Election Night Swingometer 2017 General Election. UK
CC BY-NC by Patrick Rasenberg

A general election swingometer was used to explain the predicted election results.  For the next general election, a collection of historical swingometers will be needed. Many statisticians will have to pour over what happened. This UK election seat calculator will calculate its results on a uniform swing relative to the specified election. To get an idea of the most recent polling figures, see the published lists of the latest UK election polls. Note: the united kingdom swingometer uses percentages for great Britain, but takes the seats in Northern Ireland into account (as opposition seats) when calculating the majority.

How Britain voted at the 2017 general election

The 2017 general election was swung by young voters and high turnout according to the Ipsos Mori how Britain voted survey.

Theresa May called a general election in 2017, hoping to increase her parliamentary majority and to strengthen her authority in negotiating Britain's withdrawal from the EU Although her conservative party ended up as the largest party she lost her majority in the house of commons. The 2016 referendum, which voted for Britain to leave foreshadowed new patterns of political alignment and these could be seen in the general election.

If voters agreed with the Prime Minister that the 2017 general election was about Brexit, then – given that her vision of Britain's future relationship with the EU was widely regarded as representing a “hard” Brexit (prioritising control of immigration over continued membership of the EU single market) – we might expect her party to have advanced more strongly in places where the previous year a relatively high proportion had voted to leave the EU.

Our analysis suggests this is precisely what happened. The higher the estimated vote for leave in 2016, the more the conservative vote increased, while support for the party actually fell back on average in places where leave failed to secure at least 45 per cent of the vote.

Brexit or Corbyn? Vote Switching in the 2017 UK General Election

The 2017 UK general election saw the collapse of UKIP and an unusually influential campaign that saw labour improving from a likely historic defeat to almost pulling level with the conservatives, denying Theresa May a parliamentary majority. We argue that the election should be understood in two phases: first from 2015 to the start of the election campaign, and second the campaign itself. The former period was characterised by strong switching along Brexit lines, with 2015 UKIP voters defecting heavily to the conservatives following the outcome of the EU referendum, which had enabled the conservatives to make credible promises on immigration. Concurrently, many 2015 labour supporters had defected to other parties or were undecided. The campaign then saw labour winning voters from all sources, but particularly from previously undecided voters. While campaign vote flows were not as strongly related to leave-remain votes, 2015–2017 switching as a whole was heavily influenced by the EU referendum choices. We conclude that 2017 was indeed a ‘Brexit election’, but the campaign is better understood as a general rise in support for labour resulting from Corbyn's appeal relative to that of Theresa May, particularly among the party’s own 2015 voters who had defected before the campaign.

Theresa May
CC BY by EU2017EE

In 2017, younger voters were politically energised by Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party. In an echo of the 1960s, they expressed themselves as left-of-centre cosmopolitans, reacting both to austerity politics and to the cultural conservatism found in older generations and embodied by the leave campaign in the EU referendum. In 2017, age replaced class as the key predictor of party choice. This emanated from the emergence of cosmopolitan-left attitudes amongst many young millennials, and the sense of collective political identity established within this group through their experiences of protest (for example, occupy and the student tuition fee demonstrations), the 2016 EU referendum, and the 2017 general election. The large intergenerational differences in political attitudes have been driven by the redistribution of resources away from younger citizens and youth-oriented public policy since the advent of the global financial crisis in 2008 and in opposition to the cultural backlash of older generations against the issues of diversity, European integration, and immigration. Despite his lukewarm approach to the European Union, Corbyn's opposition to austerity appealed to many younger voters, as did his internationalist outlook and his acceptance of immigration and cultural diversity.

The 2017 UK general election saw the collapse of UKIP and an unusually influential campaign that saw labour improving from a likely historic defeat to almost pulling level with the conservatives and denying Theresa May a parliamentary majority. We argue the election should be understood in two phases: first from 2015 to the start of the election campaign, and second the campaign itself. The former period was characterised by strong switching along Brexit lines, with 2015 UKIP voters defecting heavily to the conservatives following the outcome of the EU referendum, which had enabled the conservatives to make credible promises on immigration. Concurrently, many 2015 labour supporters had defected to other parties or were undecided. The campaign then saw labour winning voters from all sources, but particularly from previously undecided voters. While campaign vote flows were not as strongly related to leave/remain votes, 2015-2017 switching as a whole was heavily influenced by the EU referendum choices. We conclude 2017 was indeed a ’Brexit election‘, but the campaign is better understood as a general rise in support for labour resulting from Corbyn's appeal relative to that of Theresa May, particularly among the party’s own 2015 voters who had defected before the campaign.

Was there a ‘Youthquake’ in the 2017 general election?

Studies using data from the British election study and the British social attitudes survey have concluded that the case for a significant rise in turnout amongst young people at the 2017 general election remains unproven.

A limitation of these data sets for assessing the so-called youthquake thesis is the small number of younger voters they contain. In this article, we use data from the UK household longitudinal survey to produce more robust estimates of turnout amongst people aged under thirty between 2010, 2015, and 2017, general elections.

However, researchers have suggested that their findings support the claim that turnout increased markedly among voters in this age group in 2017. They also demonstrate that the increase in youth turnout was not specific to 2017 but, rather, represented a continuation of a change between 2010 and 2015. Analysis confirms the heightened importance of age as a predictor of vote choice in 2017, with younger voters significantly more likely to vote labour compared to 2010 and 2015.

The 2017 snap general election saw a dramatic shift in party support during the campaign. From polling as low as 25% in mid-April, labour secured 40% of the actual vote on 8 June. Commentators have offered a variety of explanations for the surge. One of the most widely held views in the weeks that immediately followed the election was that Jeremy Corbyn had particularly appealed to young people, who turned out to vote at historically unprecedented levels – the so-called “youthquake”. Back in January, this claim was thrown into question by analysis of “gold standard” face-to-face surveys conducted in the wake of the election.

The 2nd Brexit Election – The 2019 General Election

A union jack was flying on Westminster Bridge opposite the houses of parliament in London. following British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s clear victory on December 12 2019. Sights are now set on how Johnson will achieve Brexit and how the government will now attempt to heal the deep fractures within British politics.

Boris Johnson and his ruling conservative party secured a dominance in UK politics that will last for the next five years and maybe for ten. But just what he will do with that dominance remains unclear.

The 1st Brexit General Election

Brexit contempt laid bare: how Angela Merkel ‘interfered in the general election' Belgian MEP Gerolf Annemans said ahead of the general election in June 2017, Mrs Merkel claimed Britain had “illusions” over what it could hope to achieve from Brexit. Weakening Mrs May ’s mandate with the electorate tilted the balance in favour of the EU negotiators, and conservative sources suggested she was the victim of a coordinated plot. One close ally of Mrs May said:

“there is a long-standing tradition that countries do not involve themselves in the elections of other countries, and they seem to be breaking that. ”.

The 2017 united kingdom general election was held on Thursday 8 June 2017, two years after the previous general election in 2015. The governing conservative party remained the largest single party in the house of commons but lost its small overall majority, resulting in the formation of a minority government with a confidence-and-supply agreement with the democratic unionist party (dup) of Northern Ireland. The conservative party, which had governed as a senior coalition partner from 2010 and as a single-party majority government from 2015, was defending a working majority of 17 seats against the Labour party, the official opposition led by Jeremy Corbyn. Under the Fixed-term Parliament's Act 2011 an election had not been due until 2020, but a call by Prime Minister Theresa May for a snap election was ratified by the necessary two-thirds vote in the house of commons on 19 April 2017. May said that she hoped to secure a larger majority to “strengthen [her] hand” in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations.

At the risk of going a little way off-topic here, we decided to include the following paragraph about the 1027 elections in New Zealand about polling stations interesting. Chris McDowall produced a phenomenal interactive data-visualisation which shows the event vote results of every single one of the thousands of electing locations in the 2017 general election. Roughly every three years, New Zealand holds a basic political election. In the preceding weeks, a tiny army of volunteers and also officials develop ballot locations up and down the nation. Over 2500 sporting activities clubs, halls, libraries, churches, hospitals and garages became main voting terminals. I am fascinated by the location of these areas and over the last few elections, I've made numerous maps of them.

2017 UK General Election Results

The GE 2015 had the potential to be the first social media election but the 2017 UK General Elections were dubbed as the first social media election in the country. The 2017 General Election which was announced as a “snap election” by prime minister Theresa May ahead of the 2020 date in order
to make Brexit a success (Boyle and Maidment, 2017) saw social media platforms especially Twitter turning into a political battleground. The political parties were active in Social Media while attracting many first-time young voters (Thorsen, Jackson and).

It should be remembered that whilst trump got elected, only around 30% of the population voted for him. This is consistent with UK elections where the ruling party rarely gets more than 30% of the total vote when you take into account non-voters as well. Brexit was also only voted for by 30%, with 30% against and an equal number of people just not interested enough to vote. The bolsheviks when they were just taking power following the October revolution of 1917 were able to succeed because they promised “peace, bread and land”. Ordinary Russians were interested in instability, not in the promise of a utopian communist idyll. Similarly, today’s votes in favour of populist movements are generally based on a desire to just get basic needs met, and aren’t all that interested in through what political process that is achieved. If you look at trump’s core supporters, they fear that peace is being eroded because of failed policies in the middle east, bread and land are being lost because jobs and growth are exported overseas. The same could be said of Brexit voters whose main concerns appear to be about sovereignty and migrant labour.

The single transferable vote system

The single transferable vote has long been the ers’ preferred electoral system. STV operates in small multi-member constituencies, generally of around three to six MPs. It is used in elections in Ireland, malta and to the Australian senate. It is used in the UK to elect Scottish local councils and all representatives in northern Ireland except Westminster MPs. STV has many advantages. Firstly, it tends to produce broadly proportional election results. But it combines this with powerful constituency representation and ties. Voters’ ability to influence who represents them, both in terms of parties and candidates, is incredibly strong.

As the UK's general election results roll in, it became clear that Theresa May’s gamble had not paid off. She hoped that in holding a snap general election she could secure a landslide conservative majority. She has failed. This general election, dubbed the 2017 Brexit election, provided very little clarity and specific details on what Brexit negotiations would be and what the post-Brexit UK would look like. Now, there will not be the strong and stable government by the time Brexit negotiations begin on June 19. That will have a big impact on Brexit.

As the UK reacted to the shock outcome of the 8 June general election, the results offered a surprise boost for the two-party system. Despite coming first in both the popular vote and seats won, many commentators – and indeed many conservative candidates – described the 2017 UK general election as a defeat for the conservative party, and especially for its leader Theresa May. By comparison, labour’s second-place finish was been hailed as a triumph for the party’s leader, Jeremy Corbyn, who going into the election had been described as “unelectable. ”.

Vote Outcome of that General Election

Many seats changed hands in this election. Often, the social characteristics of voters in constituencies no longer correlated as it had done in the past with the return of MPs by gender, ethnicity, and educational background. Turnout was high, minor parties and independents suffered and opinion polls got it wrong. Some blamed the weather on election day but the implications of the election result were that everything was skewed by the issue of Brexit.

Theresa May image. \
CC BY by EU2017EE

The 2017 general election resulted in a hung parliament, with no party winning an overall majority. The conservative party won the largest number of seats and votes, taking 317 seats and 42. 3% of the vote, up from 36. 8% in 2015. The labour party won 262 seats, and 40. 0% of the vote, up from 232 seats and 30. 4% of the vote in 2015. The liberal democrats won 12 seats, a net gain of 4 seats, and 7. 4% of the vote.

It is clear across that the 2017 UK political election was called on a solitary problem. Simply as Edward Heath said to the citizens in 1974 to ask “who rules Britain”, 2017 political election saw the conservatives' Theresa May demand the confidence of the body politic in discussing the UK ‘s departure from the European Union. Neither request generated the desired response: Heath was gotten rid of from office and also his anticipated boosted bulk fell apart to a minority administration. Somewhat, such modified potential customers are to be anticipated in the info vortex of a political election contest. The tragedies that befall an operating state, in addition to the rate of interest and tactics of opposing parties, buffer and also thwart also the most robust campaign messages, and also, therefore, played mayhem with the conspicuously-vacuous “strong as well as secure” motto favoured by conventional strategists.

Opinion polls had consistently shown strong leads for the conservatives over labour. From a 21-point lead, the conservatives' lead began to diminish in the final weeks of the campaign. In a surprising result, the conservative party made a net loss of 13 seats despite winning 42. 4% of the vote (its highest share of the vote since 1983 ), whereas labour made a net gain of 30 seats with 40. 0% (its highest vote share since 2001 and the first time the party had gained seats since 1997). This was the closest result between the two major parties since February 1974 and their highest combined vote share since 1970. The Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Liberal Democrats, the third- and fourth-largest parties, both lost vote share; media coverage characterised the result as a return to two-party politics. The SNP, which had won 56 of the 59 Scottish seats at the previous general election in 2015, lost 21. The liberal democrats made a net gain of four seats. UKIP, the third-largest party in 2015 by a number of votes, saw its share of the vote reduced from 12.

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